On June 5, the second xiong'an steel Summit Forum was held in the Golden Peacock Hot Spring Garden Hotel. At the meeting, Ma Li, the chief analyst, gave a wonderful speech on the topic of "analysis of supply and demand and trend of 2020 steel market". He said that from June to July, steel prices are likely to fall slightly.
Ma Li said that according to the data from the National Bureau of statistics, in April 2020, China's crude steel output reached 85.03 million tons, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year. In April, China's average daily crude steel output reached 2.834 million tons, an increase of 286000 tons compared with March, an increase of 11.2% month on month. It can be seen that the steel output picked up very fast in April. At the same time, from the statistics of blast furnace operation rate, it can be seen that the operation rate in May is 3.9 percentage points higher than that in April. According to the Statistics Bureau, the average daily output in the first, middle and last ten days of May was 110000 tons higher than the average level in April, with a range of 5.6%. In May, the capacity utilization rate of electric furnace enterprises increased to about 70%. According to the current production status of the steel plant, the average daily output of crude steel will continue to rise in May, which will reach more than 2.95 million tons if it is 5% higher than that in April. Create a new historical record.
In terms of inventory, although the national steel social inventory has been digested to some extent, it is still about 50% higher than the same period last year. After the rapid recovery of steel production, if there is no more than expected demand, it is difficult to digest the social steel inventory to a relatively low level in previous years. This year will be a long time to keep the high library running. Horsepower reminds that if the relatively high inventory is not digested, once the inventory increases, the negative impact on the market will be much greater than in previous years.
Ma Li said that affected by the epidemic, China's quarterly GDP growth has been negative for the first time since the reform and opening up this year; China's overall investment situation is not good, which improved in March and April, but the investment situation is still poor. This year's main investment direction is focused on the old campus reconstruction, key investment projects and the construction of xiong'an new area. The transformation of old residential areas will be carried out in 21 provinces and cities nationwide, with a total investment of 4 trillion yuan. In terms of key investment projects in 22 provinces with comparable data, the planned investment scale in 2020 will increase by 7% on average compared with that in 2019. In 2020, xiong'an new area will coordinate 58 projects to be continued and new projects to be started, which will form a construction scene of tower cranes in a forest and full of enthusiasm.
Horsepower reminds us that there are 5 negative factors to be noted at present. 1. The output continues to recover and the supply pressure increases; 2. The inventory is difficult to be effectively digested and keeps a long-term increase of more than 30% compared with the same period last year; 3. The impact of the global epidemic is gradually deepened, and the demand for products such as plate, strip and special steel may continue to deteriorate; 4. There is no gap between the global iron ore supply and demand, and the price does not have room for further increase; 5. The expected changes brought about by the absence of economic goals of the two sessions. However, there are also good news in the near future. At present, domestic and global countries have loose monetary policy support, and the international epidemic shows signs of easing, and some international economies have begun to recover.
For the trend in the later period, Ma Li thinks that there is no hope of obvious price rise at present, and the pressure of supply and demand is increasing gradually, and the risk is accumulating gradually. Therefore, the steel price in June July may fall slightly. In the later stage, we need to continue to pay attention to the speed of de stocking.